Juan Les Pins

The standout fact is his love of fast, dry ground. On those surfaces, he has won 4 of his 12 races, a win rate of 1 in 3—more than double his career average. Strip away the good-ground races and his record becomes ordinary; put him on anything softer and he rarely gets his nose in front. This makes him predictable for those who know it, but it also means he is genuinely useful on the right day. His trainer Michael Appleby, based at Oakham in Rutland, bought him cheaply out of a selling race at Redcar in the summer of 2022 and has overseen impressive improvement: Juan Les Pins began on a rating of 72 and has climbed to 93, the measure of a horse steadily learning his trade.

His recent form tells a mixed story. Last raced just a day ago, he finished sixth—not a disaster, but unremarkable. Before that, a run of inconsistency: a win four months back at Thirsk in April, then places and modest finishes in between. The real concern is his record at Class 2, the top tier of racing below the very elite: he has never won from 17 attempts at that level, suggesting he has hit his ceiling. His work with jockey Alistair Rawlinson has yielded just 2 wins from 21 races together, below even his modest overall rate. What Juan Les Pins offers is a simple bargain: on a dry day at the right track, he can win. Take those away, and he becomes a horse running for place money, useful but unremarkable.