Ikarak

The key to unlocking Ikarak, if you were trying to back him, is the ground. On slightly soft turf — the kind of surface you get after a day or two of autumn rain — he has won 4 of his 5 races. That is an extraordinary 80% win rate on that surface, and it tells you something important: this is a horse built for soft ground, one who finds an extra gear when the field is splashing through a bit of mud. Keep an eye on the weather forecast if his name appears in a race card.

He also has a particular fondness for Warwick racecourse, winning 2 of his 3 races there. For a horse that travels the circuit, having a track where the bends and the ground seem to suit you perfectly is a real asset. His trainer, Olly Murphy, based at Wilmcote in Warwickshire, clearly knows how to find the right opportunities — the yard has sent out 144 winners this season alone, which speaks to a serious operation firing on all cylinders.

Perhaps the most telling detail is the partnership with jockey Sean Bowen. In 8 races together, the pair have won 4 — exactly half. That is a remarkable hit rate in any sport, and it suggests Bowen understands precisely how to ride this horse. When you see those two names paired up on a race card, that combination has won 1 in every 2 times they have lined up together.

Ikarak last won at Ayr on 2 January this year and has raced just 17 days ago, so he is fit and active. His recent form reads third, first, third, first, second, fifth — a pattern of consistent involvement at the sharp end of his races. At Class 3 level, which is a solid rung below the very top races in Britain, he has won 3 of 8. He is not a superstar, but he is exactly the kind of tough, reliable performer that racing quietly depends on.