Headmaster

His recent form reads as a string of near-misses. In his last six races, he has finished 10th, 10th, 12th, 10th, 17th, and then 2nd most recently — a second place just a day ago. That final near-miss might sting, but it also suggests he is still competitive when the conditions suit. The problem is clear: his record on ground other than normal — whether faster or slower — is patchy. He manages 1 win from his remaining 11 races, which tells you why Edward Lynam's yard at Dunshaughlin has not been able to get him back into the winner's circle more often.

For a 4-year-old winning roughly 1 in every 5 races, Headmaster is a horse that needs his conditions just right. Get him on normal ground at a track where he has run well before, and there is enough in his profile to suggest another win is not far away. The long wait since May makes it even more likely that one is due.