Havana Touch

One of the most interesting things about Havana Touch is what happens when the ground gets wet. On soft or muddy ground, this horse has won 3 times from just 10 races — a 30% win rate, or nearly 1 in every 3 outings. That is more than double the overall career average, and it tells you something important: this is a horse that genuinely thrives when others are struggling through the mud, rather than merely tolerating it. Trainers and punters who clock that kind of stat tend to keep a very close eye on the weather forecast.

There is one puzzling wrinkle, though. Havana Touch has raced 13 times at Class 5 level — the bread-and-butter tier of British racing, a step below the elite — and has yet to win a single one of those races. Zero from 13 is a curious blank given the talent clearly on display elsewhere, and it raises an interesting question about whether the horse is better suited when stepped up in class and asked a slightly different question. John Butler's yard has been in excellent shape this season, sending out 39 winners, so there is every reason to think the team around this horse knows what it is doing.

The partnership with regular jockey Darragh Keenan has not yet produced a win in five shared rides together, though the Kempton victory this week may or may not have come with him aboard. Either way, Havana Touch arrives at this moment in the season with momentum, a very recent win on the board, and a clear profile — give it wet ground, maybe try it somewhere above its usual class, and see what happens. For a horse that only got off the mark for the first time back in November 2023 at Chelmsford, the trajectory since has been quietly encouraging.