Havana Blue

The real clue to understanding this horse is ground and distance. On fast, dry ground, his win rate jumps to one in five (2 wins from 10 races), nearly double his overall average. At five to six-and-a-half furlongs, he wins roughly one in four (1 win from 4 races). Trainer Julie Camacho, based in Norton, North Yorkshire, has identified him as the type who could step up in company on a stiffer surface—she has mentioned that stiff seven-furlong tracks like Ascot, which often feature the fast ground he loves, could bring out the best in him. That observation carries weight: Camacho has sent out 46 winners this season, so her eye for a horse's potential is worth listening to.

Havana Blue's partnership with jockey Ryan Sexton has been less fruitful (1 win from 12 races together), but the horse has shown he can deliver on the days that suit him. Most recently, after running poorly on heavy ground at Goodwood, he bounced back with his win at Newmarket earlier this week on better conditions. He is not a racehorse who will dominate every time he steps onto the track, but he is one who knows his course and knows his conditions. For a horse approaching his seventh year with modest career earnings, consistency at the right venues keeps him competitive and racing regularly.