Havaila

Havaila's career numbers — 5 wins and 19 places from 34 races — might not leap off the page at first glance, but context matters here. A win rate of around 1 in every 7 races (roughly 15%) is solid for a horse competing consistently at this level, and the placing record tells the fuller story: Havaila has finished in the first three in over two-thirds of its races. This is a horse that almost always turns up and competes.

What makes Havaila particularly interesting right now is the recent form. In the last six races: two wins, two second places, one third, and only one out-of-the-money finish. That's not a horse drifting along — that's a horse in the form of its life. The most recent win came at Newbury just eight days ago, which means Havaila goes into its next race carrying genuine momentum. First-time winners at Newbury often get overlooked; a horse that wins there and comes back quickly is usually a horse a trainer trusts.

Over longer distances of two miles and beyond, Havaila really comes into its own — 5 wins from 22 races at that trip, a win rate of 23%, or nearly 1 in every 4 races. That's noticeably better than its overall record, and it suggests stamina is where this horse finds its edge. Add slightly soft, wet ground into the mix and things get even more interesting: 2 wins from just 9 races in those conditions (22%), meaning Havaila performs significantly better when there's give underfoot.

The partnership with jockey Harry Cobden is worth watching too. In five races together they've won two — that's a 40% win rate, which is a genuinely outstanding ratio. When Cobden takes the ride, something clicks. Havaila's first career win came at Fakenham back in April 2023, but this is a horse that looks to have saved some of its best racing for now, at seven years old, with everything coming together at just the right time.