Guesstimate

What stands out is Guesstimate's form over 1 mile 3 furlongs to 1 mile 4 furlongs. In six attempts at these distances, the horse has won once and finished in the top 3 twice more — a win rate of roughly 1 win in 6 races, which is respectable for a horse at this level. Compared to its overall record of 1 win from 11 races, that tells you Guesstimate has found its distance and performs noticeably better when asked to stay a bit longer. That Nottingham win came three months ago, and recent form has been patchy: two second-place finishes in the last six races, but also a couple of blanks. Still, the horse is in William Haggas's yard at Newmarket, and Haggas has sent out 170 winners this season, so it is being trained by someone who knows how to get the best out of moderate horses.

At three years old and without the flashy record that would catch many people's eye, Guesstimate is the kind of horse you back when it is fitted out correctly — right distance, right ground, right conditions. It does not look like a multiple winner, but it looks like a horse that will win again this season if the pieces fall into place.