Guesstimate

There is plenty of reason for patience, though, because Guesstimate is trained by William Haggas at Newmarket — one of the most successful yards in British racing. Haggas and his team have sent out 170 winners already this season, which is a remarkable number and a sign that horses leaving that stable are prepared to the highest standard. When a yard is firing at that volume, they tend to know exactly which horses are ready to win and which ones are still a race or two away. The fact that Guesstimate keeps getting placed — keeps finishing in the top three — suggests there is ability there. It is not getting beaten out of sight; it is getting beaten by small margins, which is a very different thing.

The one blip in an otherwise consistent record was a tenth-place finish, which sits in the middle of the recent form like a footnote. Every horse has an off day, and given the three placings either side of it, that run looks more like an exception than a pattern. At three years old, Guesstimate is still learning the job, and with the Haggas operation behind it, the expectation will be that a win is coming — the only question is when.