Win rate and top-3 rate will show once this horse has raced.
The bloodlines suggest something useful might be in there. Geissler is by Poet's Word, a horse who won at the highest level, and out of a Flemensfirth mare, which brings some solid jumping breeding into the mix. Whether that translates to racecourse ability remains to be seen, but the cross is respectable rather than a wild throw of the dice.
What matters most right now is the trainer. Henderson's Upper Lambourn yard is having a strong season, with 90 winners already sent out. That kind of win rate doesn't happen by accident — it reflects good horses, good judgment about when and where to run them, and the infrastructure to get them ready. If Henderson has waited until now to debut Geissler, there is probably a reason. Whether this is a horse with genuine potential or simply one that needed more time to mature, we will find out soon enough. For now, it is a debut to watch.