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Francisco's Piece

Francisco's Piece is a work in progress for trainer Adrian Keatley's Ryedale yard, a horse whose best racing may still lie ahead. The 4-year-old has won twice from 20 races—roughly 1 in every 10—with his most recent victory coming at Musselburgh two months ago. That win arrived after an extended dry spell; before Musselburgh, his previous success was at Pontefract back in May 2024, a gap of more than a year that tells its own story about a horse still finding his feet in racing.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
4 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Mayson
Mother
Josefa Goya
Trainer
Adrian Keatley
Owner
Keatley Racing Og Finneran Allen
Official rating
84

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
20
Career races
2
Wins
10%
Win rate
avg ~10%
30%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
20 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

His recent form has been patchy. In his last six outings he's had one good run, one second place, but mostly mid-field finishes and a couple of disappointing efforts. What makes his profile interesting, though, is Keatley's conviction that the horse is genuinely improving. After that Musselburgh win, the trainer spoke about physical development—how Francisco's Piece is still filling out, still coming into his coat, still maturing into his frame. This is the language trainers use when they believe a horse has genuine ability that hasn't yet fully arrived. Keatley also pointed out that the horse's best surface is fast, firm ground and that he thrives over six furlongs; a seven-furlong attempt at Epsom didn't suit him. The trainer is eyeing the autumn for a real campaign, with entries likely at competitive meetings where ground conditions favour him. He wants rain and juice in the ground, and when those elements align with the right distance and the right company, this horse could deliver something meaningful. For now, Francisco's Piece remains a horse with untapped potential—frustrating in the present, but genuinely promising for what comes next.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 5 starts (20%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 9 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Loves
Soft (muddy)
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
5F – 6½F
7F – 1M
Unknown
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Avoids
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
28 Sep
8th
Hamilton Park
5f – 6½f · Soft · 10 runners
18 Sep
6th
Ayr
5f – 6½f · Soft · 25 runners
29 Aug
2nd
Beverley
5f – 6½f · Soft · 11 runners
31 Jul
🏆 Won
Musselburgh
5f – 6½f · Good · 5 runners
9 Jun
5th
Carlisle
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 12 runners
8 Apr
7th
Catterick Bridge
5f – 6½f · Good · 9 runners
25 Oct
5th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Heavy · 13 runners
10 Oct
15th
York
5f – 6½f · Good · 20 runners
20 Sep
12th
Ayr
5f – 6½f · Soft · 25 runners
14 Sep
13th
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 25 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
50%
Win rate
1/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
York
Galloping
3 1 second, 2 other 10 Oct 0%
Ascot
Galloping
2 2 other 9 Aug 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
2 2 other 25 Oct 0%
Ayr
Galloping
2 2 other 18 Sep 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
1 1 win 1 May 100%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 win 31 Jul 100%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 other 31 Jul 0%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
1 1 other 28 Sep 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 9 Jun 0%
Catterick Bridge
Sharp
1 1 other 8 Apr 0%
Redcar
Galloping
1 1 second 5 Oct 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 6 Jun 0%
The Curragh
Galloping
1 1 other 14 Sep 0%
Beverley
Undulating
1 1 second 29 Aug 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
1 1 second 27 Sep 0%