:

Francisco's Piece

Francisco's Piece is a horse that his trainer has believed in from the very beginning — Adrian Paul Keatley says he couldn't take his eyes off him at the sales — and that faith hasn't wavered even as the results have been slow to arrive. The four-year-old has won just once from 15 races, a 7% win rate that works out to roughly 1 win in every 14 outings, and that single victory came at Pontefract back in May 2024, now more than two years ago. It's a modest record on paper, but Keatley's yard has sent out 40 winners this season alone, so this isn't a team short of knowhow — they simply believe this horse has been developing slowly and hasn't yet shown his best.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
4 years old
Sex
Colt
Colour
Bay
Father
Mayson
Mother
Josefa Goya
Owner
Keatley Racing OG, Finneran & Allen
Rating
83

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
15
Career races
1
Wins
6.7%
Win rate
avg ~10%
26.7%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
44 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

What makes Francisco's Piece genuinely interesting is the picture Keatley paints of a horse still catching up with himself. After that Pontefract win, he spoke about Francisco's Piece being backward in his coat and physically underdeveloped, and said the more time the horse got, the stronger he'd become. More than a year on, he's still saying similar things — and crucially, he's now pointing him at some big targets. The trainer has mentioned the Ayr Gold Cup, one of Britain's most famous sprint races, and is also considering a run at the Shergar Cup. That's a significant upgrade in ambition.

The key to unlocking him, according to Keatley, is conditions. Francisco's Piece wants wet, soft ground and a sharp six-furlong trip — a specific combination that simply hasn't come together often enough. He tried seven furlongs at Epsom and it didn't suit him. His recent run at York, where he finished fifth from his last six outings, is seen as a sharpener. The team is essentially waiting for autumn rain, and if it arrives, they believe they'll have a different horse on their hands. His recent form — finishing 7th, 5th, 15th, 12th, 13th and 5th in his last six races — doesn't read brilliantly, but Keatley isn't hiding from that. He's been patient before, and he's prepared to be patient again.

Whether Francisco's Piece can finally deliver on that long-held promise remains to be seen. He's faced Class 2 company six times without winning, the highest level of British racing below the very elite, which tells you he's been asked tough questions. But the trainer's conviction is real, and with the right ground this autumn, the answer might finally come.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on soft ground: 1 wins from 5 starts (20%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Soft (muddy)
Loves
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
5F – 6½F
7F – 1M
Unknown
🏅 Competition Level
Class 1 (elite)
Avoids
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
8 Apr
7th
Catterick Bridge
5f – 6½f · Good · 9 runners
25 Oct
5th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Heavy · 13 runners
10 Oct
15th
York
5f – 6½f · Good · 20 runners
20 Sep
12th
Ayr
5f – 6½f · Soft · 25 runners
14 Sep
13th
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 25 runners
9 Aug
5th
Ascot
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 12 runners
26 Jul
10th
York
5f – 6½f · Good · 22 runners
6 Jun
8th
Epsom Downs
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 8 runners
26 Oct
4th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Soft · 8 runners
5 Oct
2nd
Redcar
5f – 6½f · Soft · 20 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
York
Galloping
3 1 second, 2 other 10 Oct 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
2 2 other 25 Oct 0%
Ascot
Galloping
2 2 other 9 Aug 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
1 1 win 1 May 100%
The Curragh
Galloping
1 1 other 14 Sep 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 other 31 Jul 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 6 Jun 0%
Catterick Bridge
Sharp
1 1 other 8 Apr 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
1 1 second 27 Sep 0%
Ayr
Galloping
1 1 other 20 Sep 0%
Redcar
Galloping
1 1 second 5 Oct 0%