Francisco

Both wins have come on normal ground conditions, going 2 from 12 races (17%, or roughly 1 in every 6) in those conditions. That is a meaningful pattern. He also shows his best form over distances of seven furlongs to a mile, winning 2 of his 12 races at those trips — again at that same 1-in-6 rate. When the ground is right and the distance suits, Francisco becomes a noticeably different proposition.

His most recent win came at Lingfield Park on 27 April 2026, just six weeks ago, so he arrives here in form rather than chasing a distant memory. Before that, his first career win had come at Wolverhampton less than a year earlier, in April 2025. Two wins from the same calendar year suggests he is maturing into himself, which is exactly what you hope to see from a 5-year-old. His last six runs read 8-6-1-4-4-3 — that win sandwiched between a series of competitive finishes, with a place just three runs ago keeping the momentum honest.

One puzzle worth noting: Francisco has raced 11 times at Class 6 level — the lower end of the race ladder — and has not won once at that grade. Both his victories have come elsewhere, which is a slightly counterintuitive quirk. You might expect a horse to find winning easier at a lower level, but Francisco seems to reserve his best for different occasions.

He is trained by Patrick Chamings, whose yard in Baughurst, Hampshire, has sent out 9 winners this season — a solid return that suggests the horses are arriving in good order. Regular jockey Alfie Redman has partnered Francisco in 8 of his 20 races, winning once together at a rate of about 1 in every 8 rides. With Francisco having raced just yesterday and seemingly in the middle of a productive spell, this is a horse to keep an eye on.