Fourofakind

The most telling number in Fourofakind's record is 2 wins from 6 races on wet or muddy ground — that is a win rate of 33%, or roughly 1 in every 3 races when the rain has been down. For a horse that wins roughly 1 in 9 across the board, that near-trebling of its effectiveness tells you something important: this is a horse that genuinely transforms when the ground suits. When trainers and punters talk about horses who "love the mud", Fourofakind is the real thing.

The other number worth paying attention to is Perth. Fourofakind has raced there three times and won twice — a record that would be remarkable at any track. Winning 2 from 3 at a specific course means the horse isn't just good there, it is almost a different animal. The most recent of those Perth wins came on 25 September 2024, just over 18 months ago, and it remains the last time Fourofakind has reached the winner's enclosure. Since then, six races without a win, with the most recent form figures — 7, pulled up, 6, 5, 9, 12 — suggesting the horse has been finding things tough lately.

Lizzie Quinlan trains Fourofakind from her yard at Bolton Mill in Cumbria, and the team have sent out four winners this season, so the operation is clearly capable. Paul O'Brien has ridden this horse more than anyone else — 12 times together — and they have won twice, which works out at 17%, or roughly 1 in every 6 rides. That is a meaningful partnership. At Class 4 level, the tier where Fourofakind competes most often, the record is 4 wins from 21 races — winning roughly 1 in 5 at that grade, which is solid.

The horse raced just seven days ago, so it is fit and active. Whether a return to Perth in wet conditions would unlock another big day is the obvious question — and based on what this horse has shown, it is a very fair one.