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Forca Timao

There is something almost defiant about a horse that wins at 40-1. When Forca Timao took his first career victory at Doncaster back in June 2022, he did it as the biggest outsider in the field — the horse nobody expected, trained by a small Epsom yard that sent him out over seven furlongs and watched him win well. Jockey Rossa Ryan was quick to say afterwards that the team had always held him in high regard, and that the improvement between his first run and that day at Doncaster was significant. Trainer Mark Pattinson had been equally candid, admitting he could hardly believe how poorly the horse had run on debut at Sandown, but clearly the break and the reset had done the job.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Kessaar
Mother
Belle Diva
Owner
Mrs M Elliott
Rating
61

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
29
Career races
2
Wins
6.9%
Win rate
avg ~10%
13.8%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

Now six years old, Forca Timao has 29 races behind him and a record of 2 wins and 4 places — that is a win rate of roughly 1 in every 14 or 15 races. In the context of jump racing legends or flat champions, that sounds modest. But he is still competing, still placing, and his second win came as recently as April 2025 at Southwell, which tells you this is a horse that has not simply faded away. He competes mostly at Class 4 level — solid mid-tier racing, a step below the elite — and at that level he has won 1 from 8 races, around 1 in every 8, which is roughly what you would hope for a horse operating consistently in his right grade.

The honest picture right now, though, is that a win has been elusive. He has not won in his last six races, with his most recent run coming just yesterday. The form figures — finishing fifth, fourth, unplaced, sixth, fifth, and seventh across those six outings — suggest a horse that is in the mix without quite getting there. Mark Pattinson's yard has sent out five winners already this season, so the operation is in decent form. Whether Forca Timao can add to that tally and land a third win is the open question. He has done it before at long odds and after a slow start to his career. A horse that has surprised people once has a habit of doing it again.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 1 wins from 3 starts (33%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on standard_to_slow ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
Yet to win at chelmsford in 6 attempts
Yet to win at Lingfield Park in 6 attempts
Struggles on RH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 7 starts
Struggles on Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 6 starts
Struggles on LH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 6 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Standard (all-weather)
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Avoids
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M3F – 1M4F
7F – 1M
Unknown
1M1F – 1M2F
Avoids
1M6F – 2M
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 1 (elite)
Unknown
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 3 (mid-level)
Avoids
Class 4 (standard)
Loves
Class 5 (entry-level)
Loves
Class 6 (grassroots)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
Long straights
Avoids
Left-handed, tight turns
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
27 May
5th
Kempton Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard_To_Slow · 14 runners
20 Apr
4th
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 10 runners
27 Feb
DNF
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 22 runners
24 Jan
6th
Lingfield Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 12 runners
2 Jan
5th
chelmsford
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 8 runners
26 Nov
7th
Southwell
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 11 runners
30 Oct
5th
chelmsford
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 5 runners
8 Sep
13th
Windsor
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 15 runners
24 Jul
5th
Sandown Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 9 runners
25 Jun
12th
Kempton Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard_To_Slow · 14 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
0%
Win rate
0/4
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/4
Won / Rode
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Luke Catton
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
chelmsford 6 6 other 2 Jan 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
6 1 second, 5 other 20 Apr 0%
Sandown Park
Galloping
3 3 other 24 Jul 0%
Southwell
Galloping
2 1 win, 1 other 26 Nov 50%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
2 1 third, 1 other 16 Feb 0%
Kempton Park
Galloping
2 2 other 27 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 win 24 Jun 100%
Newcastle
Galloping
1 1 other 29 Jun 0%
Ascot
Galloping
1 1 other 22 Jun 0%
Windsor
Sharp
1 1 other 8 Sep 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 3 Jun 0%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
1 1 other 29 May 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 5 May 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 20 May 0%