:

First Instinct

There are horses that take time to find their feet, and there are horses that seem to know exactly what they are doing from the moment they step onto a track. First Instinct looks very much like the latter. In just 10 races, this three-year-old has won 4 times and finished in the frame on 7 occasions — a win rate of 40%, meaning it has won 4 of every 10 races it has entered. For context, most racehorses would be considered solid if they won 1 in 5. Winning 2 in every 5 is the kind of record that gets people paying attention.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
3 years old
Sex
Filly
Father
Bated Breath
Mother
Proportional
Owner
Dunchurch Lodge Stud Company
Rating
100

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
10
Career races
4
Wins
40%
Win rate
avg ~10%
70%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
190 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

Trained by William Haggas at Newmarket, First Instinct has come through one of the most respected yards in British racing. Haggas has sent out 176 winners this season alone — a number that reflects a stable running at full tilt — and First Instinct is clearly one of the horses the team believes in. The evidence is in the races they have chosen to enter: seven of its ten outings have come at Class 1 level, the very top tier of British racing. Winning even 1 of those 7 races is a genuine achievement, and First Instinct has done exactly that.

That win came at Newbury on 20 September 2025, a Class 1 race and the clearest statement the horse has made so far. It had already shown promise before that — a Class 2 win at Haydock in September 2024 and a first career win at Nottingham in August 2024 — but stepping up to beat the best at Newbury is a different matter entirely. Recent form reads 1-4-5-2-3-1, which tells an interesting story: two wins bookending a slightly inconsistent middle patch, suggesting a horse that responds well when conditions suit.

And conditions do seem to matter. On slightly soft ground — when there has been a bit of rain and the track has some give in it — First Instinct has won 2 of 3 races, a hit rate of 67%. On faster, drier ground the record is less emphatic. Keep an eye on the forecast.

Jockey Tom Marquand has been the regular partner, and the combination clicks: 3 wins from 5 races together, a 60% win rate that is exceptional by any measure. First Instinct returns now after a six-month break since that Newbury triumph. Whether it comes back as sharp as it left is the question — but everything before the break suggests a horse with real talent and a big occasion already on its CV.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_soft ground: 2 wins from 3 starts (67%)
Strong overall win rate: wins 40% of races
Effective partnership with Tom Marquand: 60% win rate together
⚠ What to watch out for
Returning from a 190-day absence

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to soft (some give)
Loves
Good (firm-ish)
Ok
Good to firm (drying out)
Ok
📏 Race Distance
5F – 6½F
7F – 1M
Unknown
🏅 Competition Level
Class 1 (elite)
Avoids
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
20 Sep
🏆 Won
Newbury
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 11 runners
30 Aug
4th
Beverley
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 10 runners
11 Jul
5th
York
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners
21 Jun
2nd
Ayr
5f – 6½f · Good · 9 runners
24 May
3rd
Haydock Park
5f – 6½f · Good · 10 runners
6 May
🏆 Won
Cork
5f – 6½f · Good · 14 runners
20 Apr
3rd
Bath
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 17 runners
11 Oct
7th
Newmarket
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
6 Sep
🏆 Won
Haydock Park
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 7 runners
13 Aug
🏆 Won
Nottingham
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 11 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
Tom Marquand Current Jockey
60%
Win rate
3/5
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
100%
Win rate
1/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Haydock Park
Galloping
2 1 win, 1 third 24 May 50%
Cork
Galloping
1 1 win 6 May 100%
Nottingham
Galloping
1 1 win 13 Aug 100%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 win 20 Sep 100%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 11 Oct 0%
Ayr
Galloping
1 1 second 21 Jun 0%
York
Galloping
1 1 other 11 Jul 0%
Bath
Undulating
1 1 third 20 Apr 0%
Beverley
Undulating
1 1 other 30 Aug 0%