Ellerton

The broader career record — 2 wins and 7 places from 16 races, winning roughly 1 in every 8 — tells the story of a horse that is consistently competitive without always converting. But zoom into the last six runs and the picture looks sharper: two wins from six, including a victory at Newton Abbot as recently as two months ago. That's a horse in form, not one scraping around for a result.

One detail worth paying attention to is how much Ellerton seems to enjoy normal ground conditions. On a standard track surface, he has won 2 of his 5 races — that's 40%, which is a remarkable hit rate and suggests he has genuine ability when conditions suit him. The muddier or faster stuff appears to flatten him out.

The puzzle in his record is the class question. Ellerton has typically been pitched into Class 4 races — a solid, competitive level — and has drawn a blank in all six of those, winning zero from six. His victories have come at a slightly different level of competition, which raises an interesting question about where exactly his sweet spot lies. Tizzard clearly thinks there is still untapped potential here, and with 52 winners sent out by the yard this season alone, this is a team that knows how to place a horse.

Having raced just yesterday, Ellerton is as live and active as it gets. He's a horse with a recent win on the board, a trainer who rates him, and conditions he thrives on — if you can find him on normal ground, he is absolutely one to watch.