Duke Of Luckley

The overall numbers back up the impression. Across 31 career races, Duke Of Luckley has won 7 and placed on a further 15 occasions, giving a win rate of 23% — roughly winning 1 in every 4 or 5 races. That is a solid record for a horse competing primarily at Class 4 level, the bread-and-butter tier of British racing, where he has won 5 of 17 races (29%). He is not a horse built for the big occasions, but at his level he is a genuine handful.

Distance is the other key to understanding him. Over 1 mile 6 furlongs to 2 miles — the longer end of the spectrum — he has won 5 of just 9 races (56%). That is an extraordinary conversion rate and tells you that he needs time and space to find his stride. Shorten the trip and he becomes a different, lesser horse.

Jockey James Best has been central to his success. The pair have raced together 15 times, producing 4 wins — a win rate of 27%, or better than 1 in every 4 runs. That kind of partnership matters in racing; a jockey who knows a horse's quirks and rhythms can make a meaningful difference, and the numbers suggest Best brings out something extra in him. Trainer Martin Keighley, whose yard at Luckley in Gloucestershire has sent out 19 winners already this season, clearly has the horse in fine form.

The recent form is the one question mark. After winning at Southwell as recently as 2 June — just five weeks ago — Duke Of Luckley's last six results read 3-1 and then a run of blanks, finishing seventh most recently. He raced just yesterday, so how he came out of that run will shape what comes next. The record says he bounces back. And it says he bounces back best at Southwell.