Dream Illusion

What is worth noting is that Dream Illusion has clear preferences. On normal ground, it wins 4 of 12 races — roughly 1 in 3 — a performance rate that stands out compared to its overall record. The horse also shows a strong affinity for the mile-and-a-quarter to mile-and-a-half range, winning 3 of 12 races (25%) over that distance. These are the conditions under which Dream Illusion becomes something more than average. At Class 5 level, however, where most of its racing has taken place, it wins only 1 in 14 — a struggle that suggests it may be running in the right company but simply lacks the edge needed to finish ahead of its rivals consistently.

Jockey Jack Nicholls has partnered Dream Illusion eight times for a single win, matching the horse's overall win rate. Trainer Michael Herrington, based at Willoughton in Lincolnshire, has had considerable success this season — his yard has sent out 33 winners — so the infrastructure and expertise are there. The question now is whether Dream Illusion can rediscover the form that brought it success six months ago, or whether the recent dry spell signals a horse past its best.