Captain Kinsella

The good news is hidden in the details. Captain Kinsella shows a clear preference for sprint distances under five furlongs, where he has won 1 of his 4 races — a 25% win rate that suggests he performs best when he can rely on early pace rather than stamina. He also favours normal ground conditions: 2 of his 15 races on standard going have been wins, compared to nothing in other conditions. His trainer, John Gallagher of the Chastleton yard in Oxfordshire, has been quietly productive this season with eight winners overall, suggesting the operation knows what it's doing. More tellingly, jockey Sam Feilden has ridden Captain Kinsella to victory in 2 of their 6 races together — a 33% win rate that's far above his overall mark. This partnership works.

The horse's recent form has been patchy: he finished fourth just one day ago, but before that came three finishes out of the top three in his last six runs. He struggles badly at the top level, having failed to win in seven attempts at Class 4 races. Captain Kinsella is best thought of as a sprinter who needs normal conditions and Sam Feilden in the saddle. Get those elements right, and he's competitive. Without them, he's just another four-year-old treading water.