Caledonian

His best form has come over distances of seven furlongs to a mile, where he has won 1 from 4 races — a 25% win rate that stands well above his overall record. That suggests the step up in distance David Simcock had in mind back in the summer of 2024 was the right call. Simcock, based at the famous Newmarket yard, flagged Caledonian as one to follow, noting he should get further than seven furlongs without any trouble and ought to be winning sooner rather than later. He also pointed to a second-place finish behind a horse he rated highly as evidence Caledonian belonged at a decent level. That kind of quiet confidence from a trainer who has sent out 41 winners this season is worth paying attention to.

The recent form figures — 5-5-7-4-1-4 reading from most recent backwards — show a horse that had a bright moment in the middle of that sequence but has since slipped back into the pack. The 7th and back-to-back 5ths are a concern, and it is now 18 months since he last won. At Class 4 level, which is broadly mid-tier racing in Britain, he has won 1 from 5 — or 20% of those races — which suggests he is placed right, just not firing consistently. He raced as recently as yesterday, so whatever is next, it will not be long coming. The talent appears to be there. The question is whether Caledonian can find that November 2024 spark again.