Caledonian

The numbers tell a modest story so far: one win from ten races, a 10% win rate, or roughly one in every ten outings. That said, the picture improves when you narrow it down to the distances where Caledonian seems most comfortable — at seven furlongs to a mile, the record reads one win from four races, which is 25%, or one in every four. That is a meaningful difference, and it suggests the horse is not out of place at that level, just yet to fire on the right day.

Recent form has been patchy. The last six runs show finishes of fourth, seventh, fifth, fifth, eighth, and fourth — always thereabouts, never winning. At Class 4, the level at which Caledonian has raced most often, the record is one win from five races, or 20% — one in five — which is respectable without being eye-catching. Simcock has previously noted that Caledonian finished second to a horse he rated highly, which at least suggests the company has sometimes been tougher than the finishing positions imply.

With a race just yesterday, Caledonian is very much a horse in active training and clearly still being campaigned with purpose. The question is whether a second win is genuinely around the corner or whether the November 2024 success at Southwell will remain the career highlight. Simcock's optimism from last year has not yet been vindicated, but with a trainer of his calibre keeping faith and the horse still only four years old, it would be premature to write Caledonian off entirely.