Bucephalus

The wet stuff suits Bucephalus well. On soft or muddy ground, it has won 3 of its 12 races — 25%, or roughly 1 in 4 — which is a much better return than its overall numbers suggest. When the rain comes, this horse becomes a different proposition, and that is exactly the kind of edge that makes it worth paying attention to when the forecast turns grey.

Harriet Tucker is the jockey you want to see booked. The two have raced together nine times and won three of them — 33%, or 1 in every 3 races. That is a remarkable partnership by any measure, and it is not a coincidence. Tucker clearly understands how to get the best out of this horse, and when she is in the saddle the whole profile improves sharply.

Behind the scenes, Neil Mulholland's yard at Limpley Stoke in Wiltshire is having a strong season — 59 winners sent out already. That is a busy, confident operation, and the fact that Bucephalus is still being campaigned actively at nine years old tells you the team believes there are more wins to come.

One thing to keep an eye on: Bucephalus typically competes at Class 4, which is firmly mid-table in the British racing structure. At that level it has won just 1 from 15 races, a modest 7%. But the recent run of form cuts across all of that. Horses in form can outperform their averages, and a nine-year-old racing just one day ago, with a win three weeks behind it and a jockey who wins with it 1 in 3 times, is not a horse to dismiss lightly.