Barleybrown

Newcastle is Barleybrown's fortress. He has won four of his 22 races there, which might not sound spectacular until you remember that he wins only one race in every nine overall. At Newcastle, his win rate jumps to one in every five and a half races. His trainer Ruth Carr, who runs a prolific yard at Stillington in North Yorkshire, deliberately sent him there repeatedly last year, and it paid off: four wins in 2024, all over a mile, all on normal ground. That is the sweet spot for this horse — he wins nearly one in every five races on standard conditions, compared to his much weaker record on quicker or slower surfaces. The last of those Newcastle wins came on 22 October 2024, and since then he has not been back to the winner's enclosure.

He has raced six times since that victory without winning, and his trainer has been candid about the climb ahead. Barleybrown had a break over winter and has now risen to a rating of 66 — effectively a step up in class — which means the races are getting tougher. He usually competes at Class 6 level, where he has a decent win rate of one in every six races. James Sullivan, his regular jockey, has ridden him 17 times and won twice. Barleybrown was last out just a day ago, suggesting he remains in active work and his trainer still believes there is more to come, but he will need to rediscover the form that made 2024 such a profitable year.