Ballon Rouge

What makes this horse worth watching now is the gap since its last run. Ballon Rouge hasn't raced in roughly five months — a significant break for a young horse still finding its feet — and returning from that kind of layoff can sometimes be the reset a horse needs. Whether it comes back sharper or rustier is the question nobody can answer until the gates open.

The yard behind it gives genuine reasons for optimism. Trainer Ed Dunlop operates out of Newmarket, the heartland of British flat racing, and has sent out 36 winners this season alone. That's a yard in form, with the knowhow to get the best out of a young horse that hasn't quite clicked yet. If Dunlop's team have used the winter break to figure out what Ballon Rouge needs — different ground, a longer trip, a different kind of race — then a first win might not be as far away as the bare record suggests.