Ashdown Forest

The numbers tell an encouraging story if you look at the right metric. Over its 14-race career, Ashdown Forest has won 1 and placed 6 times — a modest win rate of roughly 1 win in every 14 races. But stretch the distances to the mile-and-three-quarters to two-mile range, and something shifts: at those longer trips, the horse has won 1 of 6 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in 5 attempts. That is a meaningful difference. The problem is consistency at the highest level — at Class 1 or 2 races, Ashdown Forest has yet to register a win from 5 attempts, which suggests it belongs in lesser company for now.

The most recent six races show a horse still finding its feet. A third, then a win, then a ninth, a fourth, a fifth, and a sixth — the form is choppy. Raced just yesterday, Ashdown Forest is clearly a horse the yard believes in enough to keep firing out regularly, and Dan Skelton's team has sent out 198 winners this season, so there is genuine quality in the stable. The challenge now is whether Ashdown Forest can string wins together or whether its breakthrough at Uttoxeter in July was simply the relief of a first victory rather than the start of something sustained.