Arthur's Quay

The most interesting number attached to this horse is 40%. On slightly soft ground — conditions that sort the field and often catch punters off guard — he has won 4 from 10 races. That is a remarkable conversion rate, and it tells you something important: Arthur's Quay is not just a fair-weather performer. He handles wet, testing conditions well too, winning 2 from 6 races on genuinely muddy ground. Put him on a soft track after rainfall and you are looking at a horse who has historically won 1 in every 3 races. That is the kind of edge his regular jockey Richie McLernon, who knows him better than anyone, will be well aware of — the pair have won 5 races together from 23 outings, a win rate of roughly 1 in 5.

His finest hour came at Cartmel in July 2023, where he won a Class 2 race — one of the top grades in British racing. That result, on a tight, unusual track that rewards horses who know the layout, hinted at genuine quality. His best distances also make sense of that win: over 1 mile 6 furlongs to 2 miles, he has won 2 from just 3 races — two thirds of his attempts at that trip have ended in victory, which is a startling number however you frame it.

The honest note to strike is that Arthur's Quay has not won in his last six races, and his most recent victory came at Newcastle in February 2025 — over 15 months ago. His recent form figures of 4-6-3-3-2-4 show he keeps running creditably without getting back to the winner's enclosure. At 12, those wins may not come as freely as they once did. But he raced just yesterday, he is clearly in good health, and on the right ground over the right trip, he remains more than capable of giving his rivals a fright.