The issue is that Al Muqdad seems to have hit a ceiling. His last win came at Wolverhampton on 8 November 2025 — nine months ago — and he has not been inside the first two in his last six races, though he did finish third twice in that run. Recent form like that suggests he may be racing just above his best level, or simply running out of luck. What is interesting is that he does have a course he genuinely dominates. At Ayr, he has won 2 of his 5 races there (40%), a win rate double his career average, which makes him worth keeping an eye on whenever the yard enters him at that track.
David Nolan has been his most frequent jockey, partnering him for 15 races and recording 2 wins (13%). On normal ground conditions, the horse has won 2 of 9 races (22%), suggesting he prefers standard going to anything else. The combination of a Class 5 specialist, an Ayr course specialist, and a yard that has been firing winners all season means Al Muqdad remains a horse with obvious strengths — he just needs to string a few runs together, and he may remind people why those wins keep coming.
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
8 | 1 win, 1 third, 6 other | 31 Jul | 12.5% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
6 | 1 win, 1 third, 4 other | 6 Mar | 16.7% |
| Doncaster Galloping |
6 | 1 win, 1 second, 1 third, 3 other | 23 Jul | 16.7% |
| Ayr Galloping |
5 | 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds | 20 May | 40% |
| Southwell Galloping |
4 | 1 second, 3 other | 21 Mar | 0% |
| York Galloping |
3 | 3 other | 13 Jun | 0% |
| Thirsk Galloping |
2 | 1 second, 1 other | 15 Sep | 0% |
| Haydock Park Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 15 Jul | 0% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
1 | 1 second | 2 Aug | 0% |
| Beverley Undulating |
1 | 1 other | 24 Jun | 0% |
| Catterick Bridge Sharp |
1 | 1 other | 3 Apr | 0% |
| Redcar Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 21 Apr | 0% |
| Leicester Sharp |
1 | 1 other | 11 May | 0% |
| Great Yarmouth Galloping |
1 | 1 third | 25 Jul | 0% |
| Ripon Sharp |
1 | 1 other | 17 Aug | 0% |