John M Burke

That earlier figure was modest but real. Trainers starting out rarely set the world alight straight away, and a 6% win rate in your first few years suggests Burke was finding his feet and getting horses competitive. The concern now is that the runners have kept coming — 31 is not a small number — but the wins have dried up entirely. At some point, a blank season stops being a rough patch and starts raising harder questions about where the yard is headed.

He is still only four years in, which means there is time to turn it around. But the next winner, whenever it comes, will matter more than most.