Barry Connell

His day-to-day record is more modest, and he would probably be the first to admit it. This season he has sent out 7 winners from 72 runners — roughly 1 in every 10 — and that represents a slight dip from last year, when he was winning at closer to 1 in every 8. It is not a dramatic fall, but it is the kind of thing a competitive trainer will have noticed. Seventy-two runners is a reasonable sample, and a 10% win rate suggests a yard that is ticking along without setting the world alight between its big-occasion moments.

One area where the numbers genuinely stand out is soft ground — the kind of wet, heavy conditions that many horses and trainers quietly dread. In those circumstances, Connell's runners win at 21%, or 3 from 14 races. That is more than double his overall rate, and it is not a coincidence to be explained away. It points to a trainer who either knows how to find the right races when the ground is testing, or who simply has horses built to handle it — possibly both.

His most reliable jockey partnership is with Sean Flanagan, who has ridden 6 winners from 55 races for the yard — roughly 1 in every 9. That is a working relationship with genuine depth behind it; 55 races together is enough to suggest Flanagan understands what Connell's horses need. The pairing with Mart Lane, by contrast, has yet to click — four races, no wins — though four is too small a sample to read much into.

Four years in, two Cheltenham wins, and a clear eye for soft ground. Connell is not the busiest trainer in the sport, but he has already shown he knows how to win the races that matter most.