Brian Hayes

The numbers tell a steady upward story. Last season he was winning roughly 1 in every 12 or 13 rides. This season that has moved to 1 in every 10 — 28 winners from 277 rides — and while that might sound modest, consistency at that level across nearly 300 rides in a single season means he is being trusted with plenty of horses and delivering often enough to keep that trust. His 110 career winners in four years puts him well ahead of where many riders are at the same stage.

His most important professional relationship is with trainer Willie Mullins, the dominant force in jump racing. Twelve wins from 111 rides together at an 11% win rate — just over 1 in every 9 — might not look spectacular in isolation, but riding for Mullins at all is a mark of credibility. That yard does not keep jockeys around out of loyalty; they keep them because they win races.

Then there is Baby Kate. Three wins from seven races together is a genuinely strong partnership — nearly 1 in every 2 rides ending in a win. When a jockey clicks with a particular horse like that, it often comes down to feel and timing, knowing when to push and when to let the horse find its own rhythm. Hayes clearly has that understanding with her.

Perhaps his most intriguing quality is what happens when the ground turns wet and heavy. In those muddy, energy-sapping conditions that many horses and riders find punishing, Hayes wins 6 from 36 races — 17%, or roughly 1 in every 6. That is significantly better than his overall rate, suggesting he either rides with more patience in the mud, or simply gets the pick of horses that thrive in it. Either way, on a wet winter's day, he is worth paying attention to.