Anna McGuinness(7)

The (7) next to her name is a claim — a weight allowance she receives because of her relative inexperience, which means the horses she rides carry a few pounds less than they otherwise would. It is essentially racing's way of levelling the playing field for younger riders, and the best ones grow out of needing it. McGuinness looks like she is heading in that direction.

Her most important professional relationship so far is with trainer Willie Mullins, the most powerful yard in Irish racing. From 16 rides together they have produced 5 winners — a win rate of 31%, or nearly 1 in every 3. That is a remarkable number by any standard, and the fact that Mullins keeps putting her up is a statement of confidence in itself. Top trainers at that level do not hand out rides out of sentiment.

She also shows a particular liking for wet or muddy ground, winning 2 from 11 races in those conditions — around 1 in every 5 or 6, which sits well above her overall average. Some jockeys find a rhythm in the mud, adjusting their style and timing to suit horses that are grinding rather than flying. Whether that is the case here is hard to say from the numbers alone, but the pattern is clear enough to be worth noting.

At 4 years in and still riding with a claim, McGuinness is at exactly the stage where careers either take hold or drift. The Mullins connection, the upward curve, and the seasonal improvement from nothing to 10 winners all point in the same direction. She is a name worth keeping an eye on.