Valentine Boy

Both of those wins have come at Kempton Park, where Valentine Boy has raced seven times in total. Winning 2 from 7 at a single track is not something you dismiss — it suggests the course genuinely suits him, whether that is the shape of the circuit, the surface, or simply the atmosphere. Kempton has become his patch, and his most recent win there came just two months ago in May 2026, which means he is in form and familiar with the place.

The conditions matter too. Valentine Boy has run six times on wet or muddy ground and won two of them — that is a 33% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 3 races. Compare that to his record on faster ground and the picture is clear: when it rains, he improves. He also performs best over a mile and a furlong to a mile and two furlongs — distances where a horse needs to be tough and stay honest to the line. In those races he has won 2 from 7, nearly 1 in 3, which is a solid return.

The family connection running this horse is hard to miss. Valentine Boy is trained by Luke Dace out of a yard in Billingshurst, West Sussex, and most often ridden by Jack Dace, who has been in the saddle for 8 of his 12 races. Together, Jack and Valentine Boy have won 2 of those 8 races — 25%, or 1 in 4. That kind of familiarity between horse and rider tends to matter, and the Dace yard has hit the ground running this season with 6 winners already sent out.

His recent form reads 4-8-4-1-3-10 going back from his last run, which was just yesterday — so this is a horse currently in active campaign. The win and two placed efforts in the middle of that sequence show his best is not far away. Whether he finds wet ground and a Kempton draw again will likely decide how his season finishes.