Valentine Boy

The most encouraging number in his profile is what happens when he races over a mile and one or two furlongs. At that distance, he has won 1 from 3 races — a 33% win rate, which is genuinely strong and suggests the trip really suits him. The puzzle is that his recent form reads 10-1-8-9-6-6, meaning outside of that one bright moment at Kempton he has mostly been finishing well down the field. A horse who can win 1 in 3 at his best trip but still finishes tenth in his most recent race is a frustrating one — the talent is clearly there in patches, but consistency has been the missing ingredient.

He typically competes at Class 4 level, which sits in the middle tier of British racing — not the elite end, but a step above the entry-level races. At that level he has yet to win in three attempts, which tells you the competition has usually had his measure. His trainer Luke Dace has sent out six winners this season, so this is a small but active yard that knows how to get a horse to the track in winning shape. The question is whether Valentine Boy can reproduce the form that got him to the winner's enclosure at Kempton. He raced just 11 days ago, so the yard — sorry, so the team — are keeping him busy, which at least suggests they believe there is another win in him before long.