Val Dancer

Across 21 races, Val Dancer has won 6 times and placed on a further 12 occasions, which works out at roughly 1 win in every 3-and-a-half races. That is a solid career for a horse operating primarily at Class 3 level, though the record at that grade is modest: just 1 win from 7 races, or roughly 1 in 7. What really catches the eye is the relationship with very wet, muddy ground. In those conditions, Val Dancer has won 2 of just 3 races — that's a two-in-three hit rate, which is extraordinary. Most horses either hate the mud or tolerate it. Val Dancer actively thrives in it, and the Chepstow Christmas win, almost certainly run on heavy winter ground, is the proof of what that can mean on the right day.

The horse is trained by Mel Rowley at a small yard in Bridgnorth, Shropshire — a trainer who has quietly sent out 13 winners already this season. Most often in the saddle is jockey Alex Edwards, who has ridden Val Dancer in 8 races and won twice, a win rate of 25%, or 1 in every 4 rides together. That is a meaningful partnership built up over time, and it shows in results.

The honest caveat is that form has gone quiet recently. Val Dancer hasn't won in the last 6 races, with the most recent efforts showing a run of fourths, thirds, and a ninth — solid without being spectacular. The last win came 15 months ago now. But a horse that won at the very top level in December 2024 hasn't suddenly forgotten how to race; it's more likely waiting for the planets to align again — specifically, for the skies to open and the ground to turn properly soft and heavy. The team raced Val Dancer just 8 days ago, so this is very much an active, live contender. When the forecast turns wet and a suitable race comes up, this is one to keep a close eye on.