Upfordebate

The key to understanding Upfordebate is moisture. On wet or muddy ground, it transforms. In six races on such conditions, it has won three times — a 50% win rate that tells you everything about where its strengths lie. On faster, drier ground, it manages just 4 wins from 18 races, a significant drop-off. Trainer Patrick Neville has been patient waiting for the right conditions, understanding that soft going brings out the best in his charge. When the ground is properly heavy, Upfordebate is a different proposition, and the yard at Coverham in North Yorkshire — which has sent out 28 winners already this season — appears to have found a formula that works.

Brian Hughes, the jockey most associated with the horse, has an outstanding record aboard. In nine rides together, they have won four races, a partnership win rate of 44 per cent — well above what either achieves elsewhere. That kind of connection matters, and Hughes clearly knows how to get the best from him. Recent form shows two wins in the last six races despite some below-par efforts, which suggests the horse is still competitive when fortune and conditions align. Perth is another course where Upfordebate has found success, with 2 wins from 6 races there. If Neville can target the right meetings with soft ground and suitable Class 5 opposition, Upfordebate has plenty more winning days ahead.