Union Island

The recent form makes for encouraging reading. A win last time out, a second the run before that, and a third before that — Union Island has barely put a foot wrong across its last three races, which suggests it is arriving here in the kind of form that makes trainers smile. That last victory came at Lingfield Park on Valentine's Day, just six weeks ago, so this is a horse peaking at exactly the right moment after a short, freshening break of 33 days.

Charlie Johnston's yard at Middleham Moor in North Yorkshire has been in relentless form this season, sending out 129 winners — a number that tells you the whole operation is humming. When horses come from a yard firing like that, they tend to be fit, well-prepared, and pointed at the right races. Union Island fits that picture. It competes mainly at Class 6 level, which is where the more modestly rated horses run, but it wins there at a remarkable rate — 5 wins from 16 races, nearly 1 in 3. That is not a horse scraping by; that is a horse that belongs at this level and knows how to win at it.

Normal ground is where Union Island thrives. In standard conditions it has won 4 from just 6 races — two-thirds of the time — which is a stunning conversion rate and suggests the going plays a huge part in how this horse runs. Then there is Bath, where it has won 2 of its 3 visits. Winning two-thirds of your races at any course is the definition of a specialist, and punters have long known that some horses simply love certain tracks, whether for the shape of the bends, the camber of the ground, or reasons nobody can fully explain.

Jockey Sean D Bowen has been the regular partner in the saddle, and the pair have clicked. Together they have won 4 from 12 races — 1 in every 3 — which is a genuinely strong partnership. That level of consistency between horse and rider matters more than casual fans might realise. When they know each other, things tend to go right.