Uncertainty
Uncertainty came through with a breakthrough victory at Redcar just this week, claiming her first career win on 16 October after fifteen previous attempts. The three-year-old, trained by
Simon Whitaker at Scarcroft in West Yorkshire, has been knocking on the door for months—his recent form shows a top-3 finish in five of his last six races, which suggests he has been running well without quite getting over the line until now. That persistence has finally paid off, and at a distance that clearly suits her. Over seven furlongs to a mile, Uncertainty has won 1 of her 7 races (roughly 14%), a markedly better win rate than her overall record of 1 win from 16 races (6%). She looks to thrive when given ground between seven furlongs and a mile, and the yard should be targeting races at that distance if they want to build on this week's success.
Based on TrackLab's analysis
Owner
Country Lane Partnership
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
The horse still has much to prove at the higher levels. In three attempts at Class 1 or 2 races, she has not won, which is unsurprising for a three-year-old still establishing herself. Her first win came in the kind of race where she belongs right now, and the fact that she raced again just a day later suggests the yard is keen to keep the momentum going. With Whitaker's stable sending out four winners already this season, Uncertainty will have the benefit of an outfit that knows how to get horses to the track in form. If she can string together another top-3 finish or two at her favored distance, she may yet develop into a useful performer—but for now, she remains a modest, improving prospect.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 7 starts (14%)
✔ Well suited by 7f – 1m distances: 14% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Loves
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
16 Oct
🏆 Won
Redcar
7f – 1m · Good · 20 runners
26 Sep
7th
Ripon
5f – 6½f · Good · 10 runners
17 Sep
5th
Pontefract
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners
9 Sep
14th
Redcar
7f – 1m · Good · 18 runners
31 Jul
6th
Newcastle
7f – 1m · 10 runners
14 Jun
7th
Doncaster
7f – 1m · Good · 16 runners
5 Jun
9th
Thirsk
5f – 6½f · Good · 13 runners
28 May
7th
Ripon
5f – 6½f · Good · 11 runners
16 May
8th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
20 Nov
4th
Southwell
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 4 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|
| Redcar Galloping |
2 |
1 win, 1 other |
16 Oct |
50% |
| Ripon Sharp |
2 |
2 other |
26 Sep |
0% |
| Doncaster Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
14 Jun |
0% |
| Newbury Galloping |
1 |
1 second |
10 Jul |
0% |
| Thirsk Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
5 Jun |
0% |
| Pontefract Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
17 Sep |
0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
31 Jul |
0% |
| Southwell Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
20 Nov |
0% |
| chelmsford |
1 |
1 other |
2 Oct |
0% |
| Goodwood Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
31 Jul |
0% |
| The Curragh Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
14 Sep |
0% |
| Lingfield Park Sharp |
1 |
1 second |
14 Oct |
0% |
| Windsor Sharp |
1 |
1 third |
11 Aug |
0% |