Twilight Madness

What makes Twilight Madness interesting is not a single standout quality, but rather a clear profile of where it wins. On slow, muddy ground — the kind that sends many horses backwards — Twilight Madness thrives, winning two of its nine races on those conditions. That is better than double its overall win rate, a meaningful edge. It also shows real aptitude for sprints of less than five furlongs, where it has won two of seven attempts, a 29 percent win rate that suggests it has genuine pace. Put those two strengths together and you get a horse that is worth following on days when the track is heavy and the races are short.

There is also a course angle worth noting: Southwell has been good to Twilight Madness, which has won twice from nine visits there. That is not a dominant record, but it is noticeably better than its overall profile and suggests the track, or perhaps the types of races held there, suit it.

The one disappointment is partnership with its regular jockey William Carver, who has won only one of 18 races aboard the horse — a win rate of just 6 percent. That suggests either a mismatch or that Carver has ridden it in tougher spots than others have. Either way, it is a gap between the horse's ability and its recent record with its most familiar rider. Last out, five months ago at Bath, it found the winner's circle, so the spark is still there.