Tuba

Across 24 career races, Tuba has won 4 and placed 9 times — a win rate of roughly 1 in every 6 races overall, which is modest enough. But that headline figure flatters the earlier part of the career and sells short what has been happening lately. Three wins from the last six races is a completely different animal, and current form lines of 1-1-1-2-2 paint the picture of a horse that has found its groove and is making others look ordinary.

Wolverhampton is where the love affair really lives. Three wins from just 6 races there — that's half the time, which is an extraordinary ratio for any horse at any track. Racecourses have quirks, cambers, bends, and surfaces that suit certain horses in ways that are almost impossible to fully explain, and Tuba has clearly found one that fits like a glove. When a horse wins 1 in every 2 visits to the same track, you pay attention when that track comes up in the programme.

Normal ground conditions have also been a consistent friend — 3 wins from 10 races (30%) on standard going, compared to a much patchier record elsewhere. Add to that a preference for the longer trips, with 2 wins from 7 races at between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, and you start to build a picture of what Tuba actually needs to be at its best: standard conditions, a proper test of stamina, and ideally a familiar track.

Jockey Gina Mangan has been aboard for 8 of those 24 races, contributing 2 of the 4 career wins — a 25% win rate together that is notably better than Tuba's overall average. O'Brien's yard has been in excellent shape this season, sending out 90 winners, and Tuba looks like one of those horses that has finally clicked into place at exactly the right time. Three wins in a row has a momentum all of its own.