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Trustyourinstinct

Seven wins from just 17 races is the kind of record that makes trainers smile and punters pay attention. Trustyourinstinct has built that record steadily since a first career victory at The Curragh in May 2023, and at six years old the horse is very much at the peak of its powers. That overall 41 per cent win rate — winning almost 2 in every 5 races entered — is genuinely exceptional. Most good horses win somewhere between 1 in 5 and 1 in 4. To win nearly 2 in every 5 is the mark of a horse that belongs in the races it runs in.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Chestnut
Father
Churchill
Mother
Gussy Goose
Owner
John P McManus
Rating
110

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
17
Career races
7
Wins
41.2%
Win rate
avg ~10%
70.6%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The Curragh is where Trustyourinstinct truly comes alive. Three wins from seven visits to Ireland's most famous flat track, including a victory as recently as June 2025, tells its own story. The trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien, who operates one of Ireland's most productive yards from Owning Hill in Co Kilkenny — 154 winners in the current season alone — described the horse after that win as someone you can "set your clock by". That is trainer shorthand for a horse that never gives less than its best, whatever the company. The same performance drew comment on how the horse showed a genuine turn of foot, not just grinding out results but quickening up impressively when it mattered.

Ground conditions matter enormously in horse racing, and Trustyourinstinct has a clear preference: normal ground. On a standard surface the record reads five wins from eight races, a 62 per cent conversion rate that is almost absurdly good. The horse also tends to shine at distances of around a mile and a quarter, winning 2 of its 3 races at that trip. These are the conditions to look for when deciding whether a run is worth watching.

The most consistent partner in the saddle has been Declan McDonogh, who has ridden the horse to 3 wins from 7 outings together. That 43 per cent win rate between horse and rider is a combination worth noting. On the bigger stage, O'Brien has spoken of a Group 3 win at Leopardstown and a near miss in a Group 2 in Italy, confirming this is a horse that has already competed at some of the highest levels in European racing. The recent form of two wins and a third from the last six races, before a couple of below-par efforts, suggests the horse is cycling through form as older horses often do — and that another good run may not be far away.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good ground: 5 wins from 8 starts (62%)
Course specialist at The Curragh: 3 wins from 7 starts (43%)
Well suited by 1m1f – 1m2f distances: 67% win rate
Well suited by 1m6f – 2m distances: 67% win rate
Strong overall win rate: wins 41% of races
Effective partnership with Declan McDonogh: 43% win rate together
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 1 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good (firm-ish)
Loves
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Yielding to soft (damp)
Unknown
Good to yielding (mild give)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Soft to heavy (wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
Loves
1M6F – 2M
Loves
1M3F – 1M4F
Ok
Long Distance (2M+)
Ok
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
19 Apr
7th
The Curragh
1m3f – 1m4f · Soft · 12 runners
19 Oct
6th
Leopardstown
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 10 runners
13 Sep
7th
Leopardstown
1m6f – 2m · Good_To_Yielding · 11 runners
28 Jun
🏆 Won
The Curragh
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 6 runners
24 May
🏆 Won
The Curragh
1m6f – 2m · Good · 9 runners
5 May
3rd
The Curragh
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 6 runners
23 Mar
3rd
Naas
1m3f – 1m4f · Soft_To_Heavy · 10 runners
14 Sep
🏆 Won
Leopardstown
1m6f – 2m · Good · 10 runners
17 Aug
2nd
The Curragh
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 7 runners
29 Jun
2nd
The Curragh
1m3f – 1m4f · Yielding_To_Soft · 8 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
42.9%
Win rate
3/7
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
3/6
Won / Rode
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
The Curragh
Galloping
7 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third, 1 other 19 Apr 42.9%
Leopardstown
Galloping
4 1 win, 3 other 19 Oct 25%
Gowran Park
Undulating
2 2 wins 16 Jun 100%
Tramore
Sharp
1 1 win 31 May 100%
Naas
Galloping
1 1 third 23 Mar 0%
Fairyhouse
Galloping
1 1 other 13 Jan 0%
Cork
Galloping
1 1 second 11 May 0%