Tripoli Flyer

The seven-year-old has won 4 of his 18 races — roughly 1 in every 4.5 starts — but the quality of those wins is what catches the eye. Two of them came in top-two-tier races in the space of just over a month: a Class 2 at Musselburgh on 2 February 2025, followed by a Class 1 at Kempton Park on 22 February. Winning at that level once takes ability. Winning twice in three weeks suggests something is clicking. In the top tier of British racing, he's won 1 from 4, which is a 25% conversion rate — genuinely competitive for that company.

O'Brien was effusive after the Kempton win. His jockey Jonathan Burke reported that the horse has an "explosive bit of speed" and can be placed exactly where you want him in a race — the kind of tactical flexibility that makes a horse dangerous on a big occasion. O'Brien described him as having "a huge engine" and believes he's better racing right-handed. That matters, because Cheltenham — which the trainer openly mentioned as a target — is a right-handed track. Burke himself has ridden Tripoli Flyer in 9 of his 18 races and won 3 of them, a win rate of 33%, or roughly 1 in every 3. That's a partnership that clearly works.

There's one important caveat. Tripoli Flyer hasn't won in his last six races, and his most recent form figures — 3-3-4-8-7-2 — show a horse who keeps running into the places without getting back to the winner's enclosure. His last win was 15 months ago. Whether the Kempton run was the start of a return to form or a high point in an otherwise frustrating sequence is the question his the yard are now trying to answer. He also thrives on slightly soft ground, winning 2 from 5 races (40%) in those conditions — which is well worth noting as spring approaches.

O'Brien's plan, as of mid-February, was to send him to Southwell first before making a call on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. A yard that has sent out 90 winners this season clearly knows how to place a horse. The next few weeks will tell us whether Tripoli Flyer is a genuine Festival contender or a horse who saves his best for the warm-up acts.