Touted Plan

The numbers are modest overall — a win rate of roughly 1 in every 11 races — but zoom in on the distance range of seven furlongs to a mile and a more encouraging picture emerges. Touted Plan has won 1 of its 3 races over that trip, meaning it wins about one in three times when conditions suit. That is a completely different animal to the broader career record, and it suggests the key to unlocking this horse is simply getting the distance right.

The relationship with jockey Gary Carroll is one of the more curious threads in this story. Carroll has ridden Touted Plan six times and is yet to win on board, which, combined with that 0% conversion, raises the obvious question of whether a change in the saddle might change the story. It has not stopped the partnership continuing, but it is the kind of statistic that makes you wonder.

What gives the profile a more optimistic colour is the yard behind the horse. Ollie Sangster's team at Manton has sent out 41 winners this season — a genuinely productive operation — which means Touted Plan is not quietly rotting in a neglected corner of a struggling stable. Good horses come out of Manton, and the team clearly still believes there is more to come.

The only real cloud is the absence. Touted Plan has not raced in roughly five months, returning from a break that began shortly after that Bellewstown victory. Whether the horse comes back sharper or needs a run to find its rhythm again is the open question heading into whatever comes next.