Tonal

What makes Tonal genuinely interesting is the combination of consistency and course mastery. On normal ground conditions — not too wet, not too firm — it wins 6 of every 14 races it enters (43%), which is a remarkable return at any level. But point it towards Chelmsford and something clicks altogether differently. Three wins from just five visits there makes it a genuine course specialist, the kind of horse that savvy racegoers circle on the racecard the moment they see the venue. Some horses just love a particular track — the shape of the bends, the camber of the straight — and Chelmsford appears to be Tonal's happy place.

The partnership with jockey Ryan Kavanagh is also worth paying attention to. When the two team up, the numbers are eye-catching: 5 wins from 9 races together, meaning they win more than half the time they're paired. That's not luck — that's a jockey who understands how this horse wants to be ridden.

Behind all of this is trainer Ian Williams, based in Worcestershire, whose yard has sent out 96 winners already this season. That's a serious operation producing serious results, and Tonal is clearly a horse they know how to place well. Most of its races have come at the lower end of the racing ladder — Class 6, the entry-level tier — where it wins 3 from 16, or roughly 1 in every 5. That sounds modest until you remember this horse just won three of its last six. Form like that, at any level, demands respect.

Having only first won at Wolverhampton in February 2024, Tonal has packed an impressive amount into a relatively short career at the top. With a win just days ago and a trainer in red-hot form, this is one to keep watching.