Tonal

The horse's partnership with jockey Ryan Kavanagh is striking. The pair have raced together nine times, and Kavanagh has steered Tonal home in five of those races—a win rate of more than half. That kind of consistency between horse and rider rarely happens by accident, and it suggests Kavanagh knows exactly how to get the best from this horse. Under trainer Ian Williams at Portway in Worcestershire, Tonal operates at Class 6 level, where it has won 3 of 16 races, though it remains competitive enough to pick up places regularly.

Ground conditions matter enormously here. Tonal truly lights up on normal, standard ground, winning 6 of its 14 races on those conditions—a 43% win rate. That is exceptional by any standard and hints at a horse that may struggle when the ground becomes testing. Even more intriguing is Tonal's dominance at Chelmsford, where it has won three of its five races at that track. For a horse competing regularly at this level, that kind of course specialist record is genuinely valuable.

Recent form shows some inconsistency—a win, followed by a tenth place, a third, a fifth, a first, and a tenth again in its last six races. But Tonal raced just yesterday, so the yard is clearly keeping it active and finding opportunities. Its last win came at Ffos Las on 30 June, three months ago, suggesting there have been some stretches without crossing the line lately. Still, when Ryan Kavanagh gets the leg up, when the ground is right, and particularly when Tonal races at Chelmsford, it has shown it knows exactly how to win.