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Tommy's Promise

At five years old, Tommy's Promise has settled into the kind of horse that rewards patient followers — consistent enough to place in nearly half its races, and sharp enough to win 4 of its 22 career starts, roughly 1 in every 5 or 6 times out.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
5 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Saxon Warrior
Mother
Sister Red
Trainer
Owner
Gerry McGladery
Rating
67

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
22
Career races
4
Wins
18.2%
Win rate
avg ~10%
40.9%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The most striking thing about Tommy's Promise is what happens when the horse arrives at Lingfield Park. Three wins from 10 visits there is a remarkable return — that's winning 30% of the time at a single track, compared to a career average of around 18% everywhere else. Most horses are generalists; Lingfield seems to bring out something extra in this one. The last of those wins came on 17 January 2026, so the form is live and recent, and with a race run just yesterday, Tommy's Promise is clearly in an active, busy spell.

Distance matters too. At a mile and three to a mile and four furlongs — roughly a lap and a half of a standard park — Tommy's Promise has won 4 from 9 races, which is 44%, or nearly 1 in every 2. That is a genuinely impressive conversion rate, and it tells you the horse has found its sweet spot. Put it at the right trip on normal ground, and the numbers become even more compelling: 4 wins from 12 races on a standard surface, again around 1 in 3. Conditions matter for any horse, but they matter more for some than others, and Tommy's Promise is clearly one of those.

Jockey Darragh Keenan has ridden the horse six times and won twice — that's a 33% win rate together, well above the horse's overall average, which suggests the partnership works. Trainer John Ryan, based at Newmarket, has sent out 12 winners this season, so it is a yard in decent form rather than one scrambling for results.

The recent run of form — two wins in the last six races, with a second and a fifth also thrown in — points to a horse that is in a good moment right now. The first career win came at Chelmsford back in December 2025, and since then things have clearly clicked. At Class 6, competing against horses at the lower end of the racing ladder, Tommy's Promise has won 3 from 12 at that level. That is honest, solid work. Not a superstar — but a genuine specialist with a track it loves and a trip it thrives over.

Strengths & Risks AI Analysis

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on standard ground: 4 wins from 12 starts (33%)
Course specialist at Lingfield Park: 3 wins from 10 starts (30%)
Well suited by 1m3f – 1m4f distances: 44% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Good to firm
Good (firm-ish)
Heavy (very wet)
Soft (muddy)
Good to soft
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M3F – 1M4F
Loves
1M6F – 2M
Long Distance (2M+)
7F – 1M
Avoids
1M1F – 1M2F
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 4
Class 5
Ok
Class 6
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, tight turning
Loves
Left-handed, undulating
Wide and galloping
Right-handed, wide and galloping
Right-handed, tight turning
Left-handed, wide and galloping
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
3 Apr
9th
Lingfield Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 16 runners
28 Feb
5th
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 17 runners
28 Feb
DNF
Lingfield Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 16 runners
29 Jan
2nd
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 9 runners
17 Jan
🏆 Won
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 9 runners
22 Dec
🏆 Won
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 10 runners
15 Dec
🏆 Won
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 13 runners
4 Dec
🏆 Won
chelmsford
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 14 runners
2 Dec
3rd
Lingfield Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 8 runners
25 Nov
6th
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 13 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
33.3%
Win rate
2/6
Won / Rode
Donagh Murphy
66.7%
Win rate
2/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Lingfield Park
Sharp
10 3 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds, 4 other 3 Apr 30%
Ayr
Galloping
3 3 other 7 Mar 0%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
3 1 second, 1 third, 1 other 15 Aug 0%
chelmsford 1 1 win 4 Dec 100%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 other 8 Aug 0%
Newcastle
Galloping
1 1 other 17 Nov 0%
Perth
Galloping
1 1 other 25 Apr 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
1 1 other 25 Nov 0%
Brighton
Undulating
1 1 other 1 Sep 0%