Tom Doniphon

The key to unlocking Tom Doniphon seems to be the weather forecast. On wet or muddy ground, this horse has won 2 of its 4 races — a 50% win rate that is genuinely eye-catching. Plenty of horses tolerate soft conditions; Tom Doniphon actively thrives in them. Christian Williams, the trainer based at Ogmore-By-Sea on the Glamorgan coast, will be watching the rain clouds with interest. Williams has been in fine form this season, sending out 25 winners from his Welsh yard, which suggests Tom Doniphon is operating in capable hands.

The partnership with jockey Micheal Nolan is worth noting too. The pair have raced together six times and won twice — that is 1 in every 3 races, or roughly 33%, which is well above average for any horse-and-jockey combination at this level. When these two line up together in the right conditions, they clearly know what they are doing.

Tom Doniphon's recent form reads 5-8-4-2-1-1 — that is the last six races listed from most recent back to oldest. Two wins followed by a second and a fourth suggests a horse who was in excellent shape earlier in the year, though the last couple of outings have seen it drop back into mid-field. The last win came at Taunton in January 2025, and with the horse having raced just yesterday, there will be a clearer picture soon of whether that winning thread can be picked up again. Given the wet-ground record and a trainer in strong form, the ingredients are there — it just needs the rain to fall at the right moment.