Thunder Star

The headline number that stands out is Thunder Star's record at Doncaster: 2 wins from just 3 races. That is a remarkable conversion rate — two thirds of its visits to that track have ended in victory. For context, most horses at this level win roughly 1 in 7 or 8 races across their careers, so winning 2 from 3 at a specific track is the kind of stat that makes you sit up. Macey's yard is right on the doorstep in Doncaster, South Yorkshire, and perhaps that familiarity — the same surroundings, the same routine — suits this horse more than anyone fully understands. The most recent of those wins came on 30 March 2025, just 13 months ago.

The other clue to unlocking Thunder Star is in the ground. On wet or slightly soft going, it has won 2 from 7 races — a win rate of 29%, which is nearly 1 in 3. Compare that to its overall record and it is clear this horse has a preference: give it a bit of moisture underfoot and it becomes a different animal.

The current form is harder to defend. The last six races read 6-9-9-2-10-7 — that second place is a brief glimmer in an otherwise flat run, and it has not won in any of those six outings. Jockey Lewis Edmunds, who partners Thunder Star more than anyone, has won 3 from their 23 races together, which works out at roughly 1 in 8 (13%). That is a solid partnership but one that has gone quiet recently.

Jessica Macey's yard has sent out 15 winners this season, so the horses are running well enough. Whether Thunder Star can add to that tally may come down to simple geography and a weather forecast — catch it at Doncaster on a soft day and the evidence says the odds shift considerably in its favour.