Thunder Star

Across 36 races in total, Thunder Star has 5 wins and has placed — meaning finished in the top positions without winning — on 15 other occasions. That's a win rate of 14%, or roughly 1 in every 7 races. Add in all those near-misses and this horse has been competitive in well over half its career, which tells you it's a genuine performer rather than a horse that just fills out the field. The career started with a first win at Haydock Park back in June 2022, and since then it has built steadily through the ranks, spending most of its time in Class 4 company — solid, competitive racing without quite being at the elite level.

One detail worth noting is the ground. On wet or muddy conditions, Thunder Star has won 2 of 7 races — a 29% win rate, or nearly 1 in 3. That's a sharp jump from its overall record and suggests this is a horse that genuinely comes alive when the ground gets softer underfoot. Given that its home track at Doncaster and that strong course form are already in its favour, a wet day at Doncaster starts to look like a very interesting combination.

Regular jockey Lewis Edmunds has been aboard for 24 of those 36 races, winning 3 times together — 12% of their shared outings, or 1 in 8. It's a settled partnership, even if the wins haven't come quite as frequently as trainer Jessica Macey's yard might hope. Macey has sent out 13 winners already this season, which shows the stable is in good form overall.

The last win came at Doncaster on 30 March 2025 — 15 months ago now — and the most recent six runs have produced nothing better than a second place. But Thunder Star raced just yesterday, suggesting the team sees live chances still. Given the course record and a soft-ground forecast, it would be unwise to write this one off.