Thickthorn Tom

The overall numbers are modest at first glance: one win and three places from nine races, which works out at winning roughly 1 in every 9 outings. But context matters here. Thickthorn Tom has spent most of his career running in Class 4 races — a competitive middle tier — and has not yet won at that level in four attempts. The win at Newton Abbot came as he found his groove over longer trips, and that is where the more encouraging pattern emerges. Over distances of two miles and beyond, he has won 1 from 6 races, a win rate of 17%, or roughly 1 in 6. That is a meaningful upgrade on his overall record and suggests the stamina tests suit him.

What gives this story genuine weight is the recent form. Reading his last six runs from most recent backwards — a win, a second, a third, then a below-par run, a sixth, and a seventh — you can see a horse who was struggling badly six or seven runs ago but has progressively pulled himself together. Three finishes on the podium in a row is exactly the kind of form that suggests a horse has found its confidence and its conditions.

The stable behind him is no small operation. Dan Skelton's yard has sent out 194 winners already this season — a number that speaks to a training operation operating at the very top of its game. Horses from this yard tend to be placed deliberately and improved carefully, which makes Thickthorn Tom's recent trajectory feel less like luck and more like a plan coming together.

He raced just yesterday, so it will be worth seeing how quickly he is turned out again and at what level. If the team decides to try him at a higher grade on the strength of this win, that will tell you something. For now, Thickthorn Tom is a horse whose story is only just starting to get interesting.