Terries Royale

Both victories came in the autumn of 2024, just three weeks apart. The first was at Ascot in September, and the second at Newmarket later that month — two of the most famous venues in British racing. More importantly, both came on wet or muddy ground, and that is no coincidence. On soft or heavy conditions, Terries Royale has won 2 of just 5 races, a 40% win rate that would make any trainer's eyes light up. Compare that to an overall win rate of roughly 1 in every 10 races across a 21-race career, and it becomes clear this is a horse with a very specific set of preferences.

The problem is that British summers do not always cooperate. Since that Newmarket win twenty months ago, Terries Royale has gone six races without troubling the winner's enclosure, most recently finishing eleventh just yesterday. The recent form — 11th, 10th, 6th, 4th, 8th, 6th — paints a picture of a horse that is competitive without quite finding what it needs to win.

Jockey Alistair Rawlinson has ridden Terries Royale more than anyone, partnering the horse ten times without a win together. That is not necessarily a damning stat — the horse's two wins came in different circumstances — but it is a sequence both horse and rider will be eager to end. Carroll's yard has otherwise had a productive season, sending out 136 winners, so the infrastructure and know-how is clearly there.

The key to unlocking another win likely sits in the weather forecast rather than a change of tactics. At the horse's favoured level — where it has won 2 of 8 races, or 25% — Terries Royale has already shown it belongs. A proper autumn downpour, a suitable race, and this is a horse that could remind everyone exactly what it is capable of.