Tavana

That September win at Newbury came in a Class 2 race — one of the top tier of competitions in Britain — which proved Tavana could handle serious opposition. Before that, the horse had broken through at Haydock Park in July. The two victories came at different courses and different times, but what matters is the gap between them and what has followed. The recent form reads like a horse searching: fourth, second, eighth, eleventh, ninth, seventh. There is glimpsed form there — that second place finish most recently — but nothing sustained enough to recapture winning form.

Edward Smyth-Osbourne's yard at Upper Lambourn has sent out eight winners this season, so the training is not the problem. The real clue to Tavana's potential lies in the distance: at races between seven furlongs and a mile, Tavana has won 2 of 6 races — a win rate of 33%, double its overall win rate. This is the sweet spot, the distance where everything seems to click. Finding races at exactly that distance, with ground conditions that suit, and with the right level of opposition, is the puzzle Smyth-Osbourne now needs to solve. If she can crack it, Tavana could become a regular winner rather than a occasional one.