Sub Thirteen

The form line from his last six races tells a different story: two fourth-place finishes, three thirds, and one second. He raced just yesterday and has not crossed the line first in half a year, suggesting he may be running out of competitive petrol at his current level. Class 5 races — the kind he typically contests — are where he wins most often: 2 wins from 12 starts (17%). Jeremy Scott's yard at Brompton Regis, which has sent out 18 winners this season, has given Sub Thirteen plenty of opportunity, but something is not clicking right now.

His partnership with jockey William Carson tells an interesting story within the bigger picture. Carson rides him regularly and they have won together 3 times from 14 races (21%), which is notably better than Sub Thirteen's overall 12% win rate. That 21% win rate with Carson suggests the jockey may have worked out how to get the most from him — timing his runs, choosing his moments, reading the race in a way that suits the horse's tempo. If the yard are thinking about a return to form, keeping Carson in the saddle might be worth considering. For now, Sub Thirteen is an honest but streaky performer, a horse who will win again at Bath on a soft day, but you would not bank on it happening quickly.