Sub Thirteen

Sub Thirteen is a five-year-old trained by Jeremy Scott at Brompton Regis in Somerset — fittingly local to its favourite track — and the yard has been in good form this season, sending out 18 winners. The horse's regular partner is jockey William Carson, and that partnership has produced 3 wins from 14 races together, meaning they win roughly 1 in every 5 times they team up. That is a solid relationship by any measure, and Carson clearly understands what this horse needs.

What it needs, in particular, is a bit of give in the ground. On soft or slightly wet ground, Sub Thirteen has won 2 of just 5 races — a 40% win rate that is frankly eye-catching. Horses can be remarkably fussy about conditions underfoot, and finding one that actively improves when the ground gets softer is useful information if you are following its career.

The overall record — 4 wins and 9 places from 28 races — tells the story of a consistent, honest competitor rather than a star. It has not won in its last six races, though two seconds in that sequence show it has been competitive, just not quite getting over the line. It raced just yesterday, so it is very much in the thick of an active campaign. At the level it typically competes at, this is a horse that earns its keep without threatening the top prizes. But put it back at Bath on a soft day with William Carson aboard, and the numbers say you sit up and pay attention.