Startled

The horse clearly thrives on normal ground. In races run on standard conditions, Startled has won two of three—a 67 percent win rate that stands out starkly against his overall form. When the track is neither rain-sodden nor rock-hard, he runs to a completely different level, which is the kind of detail that separates a useful horse from a lucky one. His wins at Nottingham and York came on surfaces like that, and his trainer Richard Hughes, who has sent out sixty winners from Upper Lambourn this season, will undoubtedly be factoring that into race selection going forward.

Recent form shows improvement of sorts. Startled has won two of his last six races and finished second as recently as four days ago, suggesting he is in active work and holding his form. Yet there is volatility in there too—a fourth-place finish sandwiched between those two wins, seventh and eighth-place efforts before that. At Class 5 level, where he typically competes, he has managed just the one win from five races, which hints that stepping up in grade will be difficult. At three years old, Startled is young enough that consistency might still come, but right now he looks like a horse that will give you the occasional excellent day and plenty of frustrating ones to go with it. The key is catching him on ground he loves and at a track that suits his running style—which, judging by those two wins, his yard clearly understands.