Smugglers Haven

The partnership between Smugglers Haven and jockey Lily Bradstock has been the engine of much of that success. In nine races together, they have recorded four wins, a win rate of 44 percent that stands noticeably higher than the horse's overall record. This is the kind of statistic that matters: it suggests Bradstock has found something in Smugglers Haven's running style or temperament that brings out the best in it. When the pair line up, they are substantially more likely to win than when other riders take the reins.

Recent form shows a horse that is still competing but has lost a little momentum. In its last six races, Smugglers Haven has won twice — at Fontwell Park in May, now three months in the past — with a second place and two other finishes in the money. There is nothing alarming here, but it is the pattern of a horse that is no longer finding the winner's circle with the frequency it once did. It raced just yesterday, which means it is still actively campaigned and presumably not nursing any injuries.

One curiosity worth noting: at Class 4 races, the highest level Smugglers Haven typically contests, the record reads just one win from nine attempts. This suggests the horse performs better at lower levels, and that stepping up to tougher company tends to find it out. Mrs Sara V Bradstock, training from Wantage in Oxfordshire, has kept the horse honest and competitive over several years. That it continues to race regularly at seven years old speaks to soundness and a useful level of ability — it is earning its way.