Sir William

The most intriguing detail in his record is what happens when the trip stretches out to a mile and three or four furlongs. Over those distances he's won 1 from 8 races — a 12% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 8 — which sounds modest until you consider that his overall win rate across all trips is just 5%, or 1 in 20. In other words, get him at the right distance and he becomes meaningfully more likely to win. Given that most of his races have come at shorter trips where he clearly struggles, there's a reasonable case that the yard — his trainer, Charlie Johnston — haven't always played to his strengths.

Charlie Johnston runs one of the most productive yards in the country, having sent out 131 winners already this season from his base at Middleham Moor in North Yorkshire. That kind of volume means Johnston knows how to place a horse, and Sir William has generally been competing at Class 4 level — a mid-tier grade — where you'd expect him to be competitive. Yet he's yet to win at that level in 10 attempts, which is the one genuinely puzzling figure in his profile. His Windsor win actually suggests he may be better suited when dropped slightly in grade or conditions break his way.

Tom Marquand, one of the sport's more respected young riders, has been in the saddle for 7 of those 19 races and has the one win to show for it — that's a 14% win rate together, or roughly 1 in every 7, which is actually well above Sir William's overall average. The partnership is clearly worth watching. With a race just yesterday, Sir William is very much in active training, and at a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half on a track that suits him, he remains the kind of horse that could easily catch you off guard on the right day.